How American Politics Broke
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How American Politics Broke

Last edited 2024-05-31
 
  • American politics is broken, largely because of the changes over the last 50 years to our communications and media.
  • We’re polarized because:
    • Back in ~1960, straight white rich men had three networks they liked, everyone else had to deal with it, and the two parties were very similar ideologically.
      • As a result of the median voter theorem, that voters tend to elect the most centrist candidate … Hotelling’s law led the candidates (and parties, and newspapers, and networks, etc) to try and become as mainstream and similar as possible: They were like two lemonade vendors on a strip of beach: they both set up near the center. Thank you Keller Scholl for clarifying this point.
    • Information technology (media and communications) progressed, moving from broadcasting to individualized, niche feeds:
      • Video
        • cable: CNN/Fox → YouTube, Facebook videos → ultimately, TikTok and Instagram Reels
        Text
        • Before the internet, local newspapers were a franchise: they could use a monopoly on distribution and local advertising to support public interest journalism.
          • The monopoly model led the San Jose Mercury News, Tampa Bay Times, et al to tack to the inoffensive mainstream.
        • Today, we see online forums, Reddit, blogs, Twitter, Facebook, online identity-focused journalism, Substack, and the death of the local newspaper and local news economic viability in most cities.
      • Generally, we went from mainstream media to niche media (there’s more here, think of the transition from radio to podcasts; you get the gist).
    • All the new niche media appeals to a specific audience, and with the information environment so disparate, it’s inevitable we lack consensus reality or trust in mainstream institutions.
    • Worse, social media (TikTok, Instagram, Twitter) ultimately always sorts by engagement, so it sorts by controversiality.
      • Many Americans have spent too much time since October 7th worrying about a conflict they don’t understand and will not impact.
  • To fix American politics, we need to fix the media.
  • To gain a foothold into the media, we need to sit somewhere near where media earns its revenues: advertising.
  • If we dramatically expand the market for political giving, from $4B USD/year closer to the $400B USD/year in charitable giving, many good things will happen.
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      Market research
    • In this world, more upper-middle- and middle-income Americans would give to political causes they care about, not just the very rich.
    • More less-ideological folks would be giving to political causes, reducing the bipolar nature of political giving.
      • For example, current pro/anti abortion spending is huge relative to pro-housing spending.
    • Nonpolarized areas are more likely to be positive-sum and lead to growth and progress.
    • Ultimately, an average San Franciscan would give towards the causes of cleaning up our streets, building homes, and other common-sense causes, not polarizing ideological ones.
      • This would shift the political balance of power in a good way.
    • Local media of all kinds could receive far more (and richly diversified) funding. The mid-roll ad on a local Instagram Reels newscast would command a much higher CPM than it does today, because many more dollars would be fighting to win the (initially not automated) auction for the ad slot.
      • This would directly improve local governance. Citation needed, but local media is correlated with less corruption.